Election 2020: Results Update (Nov. 10th)

Presidential Race

Now a week after the election and seeing a media call for former Vice President Joe Biden to clinch the national election, President Trump is challenging voting procedures in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Arizona’s vote is still not complete, and Mr. Biden’s original 200,000+ vote margin has dropped to 14,746 votes with counting continuing in three counties.

Nothing has changed from the early post-election period in North Carolina.  The final day to accept votes is November 12th, and it still appears clear that President Trump will hold the state.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, coming under attack from his fellow Republicans for how the vote counting procedures have been handled in the state, has ordered a full recount, and President Trump has placed Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) in charge of his on-ground operations.  Mr. Biden has taken a small lead in Georgia, 12,291 votes from approximately 5 million ballots cast, with counting continuing.

Regardless of the outcome in some of the contested states, unless the Trump campaign flips both Arizona and Georgia, he cannot realistically muster an electoral vote majority.  Looking ahead to the end of the process, it appears that Mr. Biden will win in the Electoral College and be elected the 46th President of the United States.

U.S. Senate

The Senate races are down to three seats.  Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) has a major 62-32% lead, but with only 58% of the vote reporting.  Votes can still be received, if postmarked on November 3rd, until Friday, Nov. 13th.  It is likely that Sen. Sullivan’s lead will hold and he will be re-elected to a second term.

If Republicans hold Alaska, the party will control 50 seats, which would force the Democrats to win both runoff elections in Georgia.  If so, the chamber would be tied at 50-50, but the Democrats would have the majority because Vice-President-Elect Kamala Harris would break the tie.

Another wrinkle would appear in the 50-50 scenario, however.  Sen. Harris doesn’t become Vice President until January 20th, meaning the Republicans would have an advantage from January 5th until the presidential Inauguration.  They would again assume majority control once Sen. Harris resigns to accept her new position and during the time it takes for Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) to appoint a replacement.  Therefore, we could see some internal maneuvering during the interim period in January.

The Georgia runoffs would feature a pair of one-on-one battles.  In the A race, Sen. David Perdue would again face challenger Jon Ossoff (D).  Sen. Perdue placed first in the general election, and holds a 178,316 vote lead, but the margin is not enough to place him over the 50% mark.  In the special election, Atlanta Baptist pastor Raphael Warnock (D) placed first with 32.9% of the vote followed by appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) at 25.9%.  With neither reaching the 50% mark, the two will advance into the runoff election.  A total of 20 candidates were on the general election ballot, and the Republican aggregate vote was one percentage point higher than the Democratic grand total.

U.S. House

The House races are still not fully completed with 20 contests remaining undecided.  Of the 20, Republicans lead in 15 races, but many of them will flip back to the Democrats when the entire count is completed.

The closest race appears in Iowa, where state Sen. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) leads former state Senator and ex-Lt. Governor nominee Rita Hart (D) by just 49 votes.  Former NFL player Burgess Owens is running 695 votes ahead of Utah Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City) in a seesaw battle.  California state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D) leads US Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by 1,287 votes in a final count that is expected to get even closer.  And, Illinois Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville) has moved ahead of state Sen. Jim Oberweis (R) by 1,147 votes after trailing for days.

Of the 20 outstanding contests, five lie in California and eight reside in New York.  It appears that the final Republican gain number will fall in the seven to nine range meaning the GOP will be within eight to ten seats of taking the majority in the 2022 election.  The House figures to be a key focal point of the next election because of a tighter chamber in the next Congress.

Governors

Eleven gubernatorial offices were on the ballot in the 2020 election, and the electorates in ten states re-elected the current incumbent or kept the Governor’s mansion under the same party control.  Governors were re-elected in Delaware, Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Vermont, Washington, and West Virginia.

Missouri Gov. Mike Parson (R), who ascended to the Governorship when incumbent Eric Greitens (R) resigned, won a full term in his own right.

Open seat contests went Republican in Utah and Montana.  In the latter, at-large Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman) converted the position for the GOP.

State Legislatures

Though Joe Biden appears to have converted the Presidency back to the Democrats, it is also apparent that no wave formed around him.  Republicans, surprisingly, had a good night in the down ballot races, continuing all the way through the state legislatures.

Rather astonishingly, only one state flipped legislative chambers – the New Hampshire House and Senate moving from Democrat to Republican majorities – while all other states remained in the status quo.  This despite a major Democratic push to convert legislative chambers in anticipation of the coming reapportionment and 2021 redistricting efforts.

As the election draws to an end, we see that Republicans control both legislative chambers and the Governorship in 23 states as compared to 15 for Democrats.  Only one state, Minnesota, sees a split in their legislative chambers – Republicans hold the state Senate; Democrats’ the House – and Nebraska features a non-partisan unicameral legislature.

Voter Turnout

Currently, 149,850,099 people are recorded as voting, an all-time record.  In 2016, by comparison, 136,792,535 individuals cast ballots.  Once all of the California and New York outstanding ballots are tabulated, along with the few remaining in Arizona and Georgia, the 150 million figure, that many analysts projected, will be reached and exceeded.

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